About TSRS

Determining Strength Ratings

All statistical categories in football are based on a standard competition ranking system ("1224" ranking). Each area is comprised of data that does not correlate well with measuring variability or diversity. In TSRS, we first assign a floating point value which can range from 0.0001 to 201.0001 to all teams listed in each category. Using standard deviation, we can then build distinct data sets of information, or data scopes, that can be used to determine how much dispersion, or variation teams have from one another and from the mean value of the statistic we are measuring.

These base ratings are then weighted against the opposition category and opponent each team has faced. (i.e. Rushing Offense vs. Rushing Defense) Depending on the difficulty of the opponents played in the opposition category, the base rating is either lowered or raised to account for "bloating", or inflated numbers. This gives us a strength per point calculation (SPPC) for each team.

Calculations

One of the main reasons for using standard deviation is to help determine consistency within statistical areas for each team. Teams with lower standard deviation are more predictable whereas teams with higher standard deviation are inconsistent and less predictable. In TSRS we calculate the root mean square deviation of the values from their arithmetic mean. We measure spread by singular categories, offensive groupings, defensive groupings, special teams groupings, strength of schedule, and use covariance between groupings to measure how much these variables change together.

The end result is a floating point number with 4 decimal digits that shows how strong each team is statistically.

History

The TSRS system was first created by Joel Dezenzio in 2005, and used in his GSA Calculator for NCAA Division I sports. It was formally adapted and used for college football in 2008. During this three year period, the #1 TSRS rated team has also won the BCS championship three years in a row. TSRS is also included on Kenneth Massey's comparison rankings for college football each year once seasonal play has begun. In 2011, TSRS was formally adapted for use with the NFL. Calculations were performed for the 2009 and 2010 seasons. In 2009, the TSRS champion for the NFL was the New Orleans Saints who went on to win Super Bowl XLIV. In 2010, the TSRS champion for the NFL was the Pittsburgh Steelers who ultimately lost to the Green Bay Packers in Super Bowl XLV.